When word got out that Justin Upton took the Oakland A's off his no-trade list it sent a disturbance through the force. Immediately dreams were made and scenarios were thought up to see if the Green and Gold could land the 24 year old outfielder from the Arizona Diamondbacks. While some question why would we have need for another outfielder, especially one who thus far is not performing all that well, I quickly envisioned an Upton-Cespedes-Reddick outfield and felt positively giddy at the thought*. Even though the A's are currently baseball's hottest team, within 0.5 games of the wildcard, and have put on a pretty impressive offensive display the last 10 games or so I still feel going after a player such as Upton would be a wise choice. Of course in order to land Upton we would have to do two things; one is to trade the D-Backs enough value to receive Upton in return and two, clear up an outfield position so Upton could be made a starter.
To receive Upton the A's do not line up real well with the D-Backs. The D-Backs are seeking SS and 3rd base help the same as the A's but that doesn't mean a trade couldn't happen or that a third party, something Billy Beane used to excel in doing*, could enter the picture to help facilitate the trade. Even though no one is technically "untouchable" with Beane there are a few names I feel the A's would be reluctant to deal:
Jarrod Parker- We just got him from the D-Backs and so far he is proving his worth. A rotation cornerstone now and for the future.
Josh Reddick- The A's finally have a middle of the order bat who is young and under team control. Trading him for Upton would be counter-productive, a lateral move at best.
Yoenis Cespedes- Health so far is the only thing keeping him from being a super-star, and for only $36 million over 4 years.
Derek Norris- As much as it pains me to admit, Kurt Suzuki is on his way out and Norris is the team's only in house option at this point.
Jemile Weeks- Young, gifted, and cheap. Is going to be part of the winning core for now and the future.
Everybody else in the A's franchise is very much on the trade list and could be part of any deal. The problem however is that the Rangers and the Pirates have also expressed interest. While the A's can't match them in terms of top prospects(Jurickson Profar, Mike Olt, Gerrit Cole, and James Taillon) both the Rangers and the Pirates have said they do not intend on trading any of those prospects but will offer from a lesser pool of talent instead. That means the A's can be involved in the discussions.
The other part of any deal for Upton would require the clearing up of an outfield position. I am confident that both Cespedes and Reddick are locked into the OF so that leaves guys like Seth Smith, Jonny Gomes, Collin Cowgill, and Coco Crisp on the cuff. Gomes makes for a great bench bat and spot outfielder while Cowgill is young, can play all three OF positions, and is solid at the plate as well. So I think those guys would round out the OF picture for the A's. Smith and Crisp however are proving that they deserve to start so they might be the ones that need to be moved so Upton can start. Crisp is short term and would be a welcome addition to any of the other contenders but Smith is a different story. Right now Smith is having a better season than Upton and is still under team control through 2014, only one year less than Upton, 2015. So why trade for Upton when you already have Smith? The answer is age and ceiling. Upton is only 24 years old(5 years younger than Smith) and some still project him to be a super star OF while what you see with Smith right now is what you are going to get during his peak. So it is the classic probability vs. projection. Do you keep the solid, steady production of Smith or do you go for the potential All-Star in Upton*?
*at the thought- I had also just read Joe Sheehan's excellent newsletter story about Upton. I strongly recommend Sheehan's newsletter to all baseball fans, keep in mind that you do have to pay for it.
*excel in doing- Way back in the day, Beane was known for what we used to call his "Fuckin' A" trades. Usually mid-season and usually involving as many teams as he could get on the phone.
*All-Star in Upton- Remember, Upton has already had a 3.8 bWAR season in 2009 and a 5.7 bWAR season in 2011. Smith's best year so far, a 2.2 bWAR in 2009. Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.
*All-Star in Upton- Remember, Upton has already had a 3.8 bWAR season in 2009 and a 5.7 bWAR season in 2011. Smith's best year so far, a 2.2 bWAR in 2009. Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.
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